#59.17 | "Variable geometry" [FICTION]
"The end of rules-based international order" ~ Václav Havel ~ "If we are not at the table, we are on the menu"
Note: The following is a work of fiction and not necessarily representative of my own personal views. On January 8, I committed to writing a serialized novel, 500-words-a-day, for the next thirty days. Every day, I sit down and write 500 divinely inspired words as the story unfolds in my head. Please don’t send me angry DMs or comments; I’m just a conduit for the Universe! Enjoy!! 🎉
XVII. “Variable geometry“
The room applauses politely as Ariana takes her seat and Eisner Bentham steps onto the dais. He is a tall man with salt and pepper hair, sixty years of age, with an angular frame and a distinguished air.
“Thank you, Ariana. And thank you, all, for attending tonight. I need not tell you that we are currently living in interesting times.
“I want to start our meeting with honesty. We have all —I think we can agree— been living within a lie, and have done so for decades now because it has benefited us. Global trade, open sea lanes, a stable financial system. All this time, we have looked the other way and been complicit with this useful fiction. We loudly proclaimed principles we did not stand for, and professed values we believed in, only when convenient.
“In two days time, the United States will formally seize Greenland. The media will report the Danes willingly sold and that the native Greenlanders themselves agreed via referendum. But you, I, and everyone in this room knows that is only a partial truth. Because acquiescence under duress is simply subjugation by another name. And there can be no sovereignty so long there exists such gross power asymmetry.
“Predictably, the dissolution of NATO in all but name resets the global board. The end of American hegemony means the return of great powers competition once more. To be clear, our simulations and analysis engines have predicted the end of American dominance for quite some time now. With every passing year for the past two decades, American influence had already been waning as China grew stronger and Russia bolder. So the end of unipolar power was inevitable. Honestly, I have to hand it to the Americans for taking Greenland while they still could and had the cards— it was clever and audacious on their part; I hadn’t thought the boy scouts had it in them. But well done to them, well done.
“Which brings us to our order of business tonight— Ryndel Corporation’s macro strategy given the current global state of play. I am pleased to say—” here, Eisner cannot help but smile— “that this next year is going to be very good for us. All of Europe is remilitarizing and re-industrializing so as free trade around the world disintegrates, domestic production will return en masse. And supply chains, once global and all encompassing, will balkanize as variable geometry returns en vogue.
“This means, I am happy to report, that we have revised and raised our guidance for this next fiscal year over 600% in all related industries. We expect parabolic growth in energy, arms manufacturing, and food production from all segments. We anticipate in the next two years the biggest demand shock postbellum Europe has ever seen. Everyone wants a seat at the table so we will be there to serve them a veritable buffet.
“However, it is certainly not without risk. As we saw in Venezuela back in 2007, the greatest threat now to our assets and our people are from state actors regarding seizure. Ryndel fears no other company, but we do —for good reason— fear governments.”